Where Can First-Time Buyers Afford a Home? 100 US Metros and Every UK Region (2026)

A starter home in the Los Angeles metro area would take 47.9% of a typical young household's gross income, and that's just the mortgage and property tax. It's the worst first-time buyer affordability of the 100 largest US metros we ranked. At the other end, the same kind of home in Jackson, Mississippi, takes 9.9%. Pittsburgh (10.3%) and Birmingham, Alabama (10.9%) are close behind.

Nineteen of the 100 metros land above the 28% of gross income that lenders commonly treat as the ceiling for housing costs, and Fresno sits right on it. Nine of those 19 are in California. In the UK, where we measured one full-time salary instead of a household's income, London is the outlier: the mortgage on an average first-time buyer home would take 58.3% of the median pay of a full-time worker in their 30s. Only the North East (26.5%) and Scotland (26.6%) come in under 28%.

How to read the numbers

Every US figure answers one question. If a household headed by someone aged 25 to 44 bought a starter home in this metro today, with 10% down, what share of its gross income would go to the monthly mortgage payment plus property tax?

We used that age band for a reason. The typical first-time buyer in the US is now 40 years old, a record high, according to the National Association of Realtors' 2025 buyer profile. The same survey found the typical first-time buyer put 10% down, which is the deposit we assumed.

A few things to keep in mind as you read:

• A lower share means more affordable. The ranking runs from 1 (most affordable) to 100 (least).
• "Starter home" means a home in roughly the 5th to 35th percentile of local home values. It's the cheaper end of the market, not the typical home.
• The monthly cost covers principal, interest and property tax only. Homeowners insurance, mortgage insurance, HOA fees and repairs come on top, so the real share is higher everywhere.
• The UK numbers use a different measure (one person's pay, not a household's), so you can't compare a US share with a UK share. We rank the two countries separately.

The 10 most affordable US metros for first-time buyers

The cheapest places to buy a first home are mostly in the South and the Midwest, plus Pittsburgh. Ohio shows up twice in the top 10. In each of these metros, a starter home costs less than 14% of a young household's income before insurance.

1. Jackson, MS: 9.9% of income ($609 a month on a $90,636 starter home)
2. Pittsburgh, PA: 10.3% ($884 a month, $123,353 home)
3. Birmingham, AL: 10.9% ($806 a month, $122,439 home)
4. St. Louis, MO: 12.1% ($1,004 a month, $141,571 home)
5. Augusta, GA: 12.4% ($889 a month, $133,838 home)
6. Toledo, OH: 12.6% ($789 a month, $107,276 home)
7. Memphis, TN: 12.9% ($825 a month, $122,865 home)
8. Wichita, KS: 13.1% ($945 a month, $132,255 home)
9. Detroit, MI: 13.2% ($988 a month, $136,631 home)
10. Akron, OH: 13.6% ($994 a month, $135,963 home)

Pittsburgh is the one I'd point to. Its young households earn $103,080 a year, which is above the median of the 100 metros, while its starter homes cost $123,353. That's a price of 1.2 times income, the lowest ratio in the study. Jackson edges it on the monthly share only because its property tax is lower.

The 10 least affordable US metros for first-time buyers

California dominates the bottom of the list. Seven of the 10 least affordable metros are in the state, and Los Angeles is last.

1. Los Angeles, CA: 47.9% of income ($4,428 a month on a $660,005 starter home)
2. Oxnard, CA: 41.6% ($4,545 a month, $676,388 home)
3. San Diego, CA: 41.0% ($4,433 a month, $661,611 home)
4. Modesto, CA: 35.2% ($2,567 a month, $380,366 home)
5. San Jose, CA: 35.1% ($6,353 a month, $947,770 home)
6. New York, NY: 34.7% ($3,640 a month, $489,359 home)
7. Providence, RI: 32.5% ($2,779 a month, $395,077 home)
8. Urban Honolulu, HI: 32.3% ($2,955 a month, $461,471 home)
9. Riverside, CA: 31.8% ($2,829 a month, $419,330 home)
10. Sacramento, CA: 31.4% ($2,911 a month, $428,761 home)

Remember that these shares leave out insurance. In all 10 of these metros, a starter home is already past the 28% line before the insurance bill arrives.

What drives the gap: prices, pay or property tax?

Mostly prices. Starter home values across the 100 metros range from $90,636 in Jackson to $947,770 in San Jose, a gap of more than 10 times. Young-household incomes vary far less, from $69,713 in McAllen, Texas, to $217,259 in San Jose, about three times. So when you move from one metro to another, the price of a starter home changes much faster than what people earn there.

The simplest way to see it is the price-to-income ratio, which is the starter home value divided by income. It lines up almost exactly with our ranking. Jackson's is 1.22. Los Angeles's is 5.95.

Income still matters, and Los Angeles is the clearest case. Its starter homes ($660,005) cost less than San Jose's ($947,770). But young households in the Los Angeles metro earn $110,906, about half of San Jose's $217,259. That's why Los Angeles ranks 100th while San Jose, with the most expensive starter homes in the country, ranks 96th. Modesto is the mirror image. Its homes are cheap by California standards at $380,366, but its young households earn $87,530, so it lands at 35.2%, next to San Jose.

The mortgage rate sets the price of every dollar borrowed. At the 7.28% Freddie Mac average we used, each $100,000 borrowed over 30 years costs about $684 a month in principal and interest. That rate was 7.03% a week earlier, so these numbers can shift quickly.

Property tax plays a smaller part, but it can move a metro up or down the list. Effective rates in our data range from 0.29% in Honolulu to 2.27% in Rochester, New York. By our math, property tax adds about $357 a month to a Rochester starter home's $1,517 total, nearly a quarter of the bill. Without it, Rochester's share would drop from 19.9% to about 15%. In Knoxville, Tennessee, where the effective rate is 0.37%, tax adds about $72 a month. If we ranked metros on the mortgage payment alone, Rochester would sit 15 places higher. Syracuse, Hartford, Albany and El Paso would each climb 11 places.

The deposit is often the bigger hurdle

The monthly payment is only half the problem. You have to get in the door first.

We estimated how long it would take a household to save a 10% down payment plus about 3% for closing costs, if it set aside 15% of its gross income every year. Across the 100 metros, the median is 2.2 years. In Pittsburgh it's 1.0 year. In Los Angeles it's 5.2 years, and that's on top of the near-48% monthly share.

In dollars, 13% of a Los Angeles starter home is about $85,800. In Jackson it's about $11,800. Same goal, wildly different starting line.

This lines up with what buyers report. In NAR's survey, 59% of first-time buyers used personal savings for the down payment and 22% got a gift or loan from family or friends. In the priciest metros, I suspect family help often decides whether a purchase happens at all.

One more thing the down payment doesn't cover is a cushion for the first broken furnace, leaky roof or job scare. Our emergency fund guide explains why that money should sit apart from the house fund.

UK results: London is the outlier

The UK picture is simpler. Affordability gets worse the closer you get to London, and then London itself jumps off the scale.

At the HM Land Registry average first-time buyer price of £466,851, a 90% mortgage in London costs £2,548 a month. That's 58.3% of the £52,446 median pay of a full-time London worker aged 30 to 39. The home costs 8.9 times that salary. Saving a 10% deposit (about £46,700) at 15% of pay would take 5.9 years.

In the North East, the average first-time buyer home costs £145,895, the mortgage is £796 a month, and it takes 26.5% of median pay. Scotland is almost identical at 26.6%. The deposit there takes about 2.7 years to save.

The South East (48.2%), East of England (45.4%) and South West (41.9%) make up the rest of the bottom four. In 10 of the 12 regions and nations, the mortgage alone takes more than 28% of one median salary.

Rates have moved against UK buyers this year. The Bank of England's average two-year fixed rate at 90% loan-to-value was 4.36% in January 2026 and 5.37% in September. At 5.37% over 25 years, each £100,000 borrowed costs about £606 a month.

Why use one salary? It's how the Office for National Statistics measures housing affordability: house prices against the earnings of one full-time employee. It's a tough test, since plenty of first-time buyers buy as a couple. Two people each on their region's median pay would roughly halve these shares, which would bring London close to 30% and the North East to about 13%.

What this means if you're saving for a first home

This study doesn't tell anyone where to live or when to buy. Jobs, family and the life you want matter more than a ranking. It does show how much the same goal costs in different places, and a few lessons hold everywhere.

Treat the 28% guideline as a ceiling. Lenders commonly cap housing costs (mortgage, property tax and insurance) at about 28% of gross monthly income, and they also look at your total debt. Our shares leave insurance out, so a metro at 25% in our table may already be close to 28% once you add it. Being approved for a loan and being comfortable with the payment are different things. Our post on how a dream home can leave you house poor walks through what happens when the payment eats everything else.

Run your own numbers. Your income, debts and deposit won't match a metro median. The home affordability calculator shows what price range your income supports, and the mortgage calculator shows how the rate and deposit change your monthly payment.

The deposit is often the real barrier. In the median metro, a 10% down payment plus closing costs takes about 2.2 years of steady saving, and in 21 metros it takes three years or more. Starting early and keeping the money somewhere safe matters more than squeezing out a slightly better return. Our checklist of factors to weigh as a new homebuyer covers the costs people forget.

Renting isn't failing. Our CSV includes Zillow's typical rent for each metro, but that's for a typical rental, not a starter home, so it isn't a like-for-like comparison. If you're weighing the two, our rent vs buy breakdown sets out the full costs on each side.

Full ranking: 100 US metros

Share of income is the monthly mortgage payment plus property tax on a starter home, divided by the monthly income of a household headed by someone aged 25 to 44. A lower share means more affordable. Monthly cost excludes insurance, mortgage insurance and HOA fees.

Full ranking: 12 UK regions and nations

Share of pay is the monthly mortgage payment on an average first-time buyer home, with a 10% deposit, divided by the monthly median gross pay of one full-time employee aged 30 to 39. A lower share means more affordable. These figures can't be compared with the US table.

*Northern Ireland uses the all-buyer average price (there is no first-time buyer series) and full-time pay for all ages (no age split is published).

Methodology

We built the study from public data, and each step is below so anyone can check or repeat it. The data was pulled on October 8, 2026.

US: the 100 largest metros

• Metros: the 100 largest metro areas by Zillow's size ranking, each matched to its Census metropolitan statistical area.
• Starter home value: the Zillow Home Value Index bottom tier for August 2026. It's the typical value of homes in roughly the 5th to 35th percentile of each metro, covering single-family homes and condos, smoothed and seasonally adjusted. It's an estimate of value, not an asking price.
• Income: median household income for households headed by someone aged 25 to 44, from the Census Bureau's American Community Survey 2024 1-year estimates (table B19049). The ACS is the newest metro-level income data by age. We brought it forward to the second quarter of 2026 using the Employment Cost Index for private-industry wages and salaries, an increase of 6.4% applied to every metro.
• Mortgage: a 30-year fixed loan at 7.28%, the Freddie Mac weekly average for October 1, 2026, on 90% of the starter home value (10% down).
• Property tax: each metro's effective rate, calculated as the ACS median real estate taxes paid divided by the ACS median home value, applied to the starter home value.
• Share of income: 12 months of mortgage payment plus property tax, divided by annual income.
• Years to save: a 10% down payment plus about 3% closing costs (13% of the starter home value), divided by 15% of annual income.

UK: 12 regions and nations

• Price: the HM Land Registry UK House Price Index average first-time buyer price for July 2026. This is an average (mean) price, which runs higher than a median. Northern Ireland has no first-time buyer series, so we used its all-buyer average.
• Pay: median gross annual pay for full-time employees aged 30 to 39, by region of workplace, from the ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings 2025 (provisional). Northern Ireland has no age split, so we used all full-time employees. Workplace-based pay counts people where they work, so London's figure includes commuters who live outside it.
• Mortgage: a two-year fixed rate at 90% loan-to-value of 5.37%, the Bank of England average for September 2026 (series IUMB482), repaid over 25 years. We applied it to the whole term, though in practice the rate resets after two years.
• Share of pay: 12 months of mortgage payment divided by annual pay.
• Years to save: a 10% deposit divided by 15% of annual pay. Unlike the US figure, it has no allowance for fees.

What the numbers leave out

• Homeowners insurance, private mortgage insurance, HOA or service charges, maintenance and utilities. The true monthly cost is higher everywhere, and insurance varies a lot by state.
• UK stamp duty and its Scottish and Welsh equivalents, plus legal and lender fees. In England and Northern Ireland, first-time buyer relief means no stamp duty up to £300,000 and 5% on the part between £300,001 and £500,000. A buyer at the London average would still owe about £8,300.
• Rate differences between buyers. Freddie Mac's survey average assumes a borrower with strong credit and 20% down. A buyer putting 10% down may pay a higher rate, plus mortgage insurance.
• Assessment rules for property tax. In states that cap assessments for long-time owners, such as California and Florida, a new buyer is usually taxed on the purchase price. Our effective rates come from all homeowners, so the real bill for a new buyer there is likely higher than our estimate.
• Individual circumstances. These are metro and regional medians. Your own income, debts, credit and savings will give a different answer.

US and UK figures use different inputs on purpose. The US uses household income and the cheaper third of homes, while the UK uses one person's pay and the average first-time buyer price. Rank each country on its own terms.

Use this data

You're welcome to cite, chart or republish these findings. Please credit Alpha Investing Group and link to this page. The full datasets, including price-to-income ratios, property tax rates, years to save and Zillow's typical rent for each metro, are free to download:

• US: 100 metros (CSV)
• UK: 12 regions and nations (CSV)

We plan to update the study each year with the newest data.