What financial independence means
Financial independence (often shortened to FI) is the point where your investments could pay for your spending, so working becomes a choice rather than a need. People who aim to get there early call it FIRE: financial independence, retire early. You don’t have to stop working to find the number useful. It tells you how far your savings are from covering your life.
This calculator estimates how many years it could take, at your current pay and spending, for your investments to reach that point. The answer depends mostly on your savings rate, the share of your take-home pay you don’t spend.
How the calculator works
Your FI number is your yearly spending divided by a withdrawal rate. The withdrawal rate is the share of your investments you’d take out in the first year of living off them. At 4%, the target is 25 times your spending: $40,000 a year needs $1,000,000.
Your savings are your take-home pay minus your spending. The calculator invests one twelfth of that at the end of every month, on top of what you’ve already invested, and grows the total at the return you enter. It counts the months until the balance reaches your FI number.
The return is a real return: growth after inflation (rising prices) is taken off. Investor.gov, the SEC’s site for investors, defines real return as what an investment earns after inflation and taxes, and notes that it’s lower than the headline (“nominal”) return. Using a real return keeps every number in today’s dollars, so the target means what $1,000,000 buys now, not in 30 years.
Your savings rate works twice. Spending less leaves more to invest, and it also lowers your FI number, because the target is a multiple of what you spend. That’s why the table of savings rates falls so steeply at first.
Worked example
Say you take home $70,000 a year, spend $56,000 and invest the other $14,000. That’s a 20% savings rate. You already have $15,000 invested, and you assume a 5% return after inflation and a 4% withdrawal rate.
- The target: $56,000 ÷ 4% = $1,400,000, which is 25 times your yearly spending.
- The time: about 35 years 4 months. By then you’d have put in $509,667 of your own money, and growth would have added $893,536.
- Five points more: spend $52,500 instead and your savings rate is 25%. The target falls to $1,312,500 and the time to about 30 years 9 months, roughly 4 years 7 months sooner.
Now make the assumptions less kind. With a return one point lower (4%), the original plan takes about 39 years 8 months. With a 3.5% withdrawal rate, the target rises to $1,600,000 and it takes about 37 years 8 months. Neither the return nor a safe withdrawal rate is known in advance, which is why it’s worth looking at a range rather than one date.
Where the 4% comes from
In 1994, financial planner William Bengen tested withdrawal rates against US stock and bond returns and inflation since 1926. With a portfolio of half stocks and half bonds, someone who withdrew 4% in the first year, then raised that dollar amount with inflation each year, never ran out of money in less than 33 years, whatever year they started. At 3% to about 3.5%, the money lasted at least 50 years. He called a 5% start risky.
In 1998, three Trinity University professors (Cooley, Hubbard and Walz) ran a similar test. With withdrawals raised for inflation, a 4% start lasted 30 years in 95% to 98% of past periods for portfolios that were half or more in stocks. They also concluded that early retirees, who need their money to last longer, should plan on lower withdrawal rates.
Both studies describe the past, which doesn’t guarantee the future. Both also looked at retirements of around 30 years. If you reach FI at 40, your money may need to last 50 years or more, so a 3% or 3.5% rate is closer to what held up over that long in Bengen’s tests. Try it in the calculator: the target rises and the date moves out.
Choosing a return
No one knows future returns. As a reference point, Bengen’s paper notes that in the historical data he used, which starts in 1926, a mix of 60% stocks and 40% bonds earned almost 5.1% a year after inflation. The calculator starts at 5%, close to that. A portfolio with more bonds or cash would likely earn less, and any portfolio can have long stretches of poor returns. Entering 3% or 4% shows a more cautious plan, and the “If the assumptions are less kind” table under the results runs those numbers for you.
What the result leaves out
- Taxes. Withdrawals from a traditional 401(k) or IRA are generally taxed as income, so you may need to take out more than you spend.
- Changes in spending. Children, a paid-off mortgage or health insurance before Medicare can move your spending, and with it your FI number.
- Other income. Social Security, a pension or part-time work would lower what your investments have to cover.
- The order of returns. Smooth yearly growth is an average. A crash just after you stop working does more damage than the same crash years earlier; our guide to sequence of returns risk explains why.
For the arithmetic behind the savings-rate table, see why your savings rate decides your retirement date; for more on the withdrawal rate, read our 4% rule guide. To see how a single monthly amount grows, try the compound interest calculator.